Address "important", ignore "urgent"

Important tasks contribute directly to your goals, while urgent tasks usually come from others. Know what matters and focus on true priorities.

• Eisenhower matrix:
  • Urgent & Important => Do it now
  • Important but not urgent => Schedule in your agenda
  • Urgent but not important => Delegate to others
  • Not important and not urgent => Eliminate

Visualize all the dominos (second order thinking)

Use to make decisions as informed as possible. Visualize the immediate impact but also project a range of consequences.

• Conduct a cost-benefit analysis for your decisions/solutions.
• Think twice, seek extra info, and consider long-term ramifications.
• Questions to ask:
  • What's the future impact?
  • Who else will be impacted?
  • What does everybody else think?
  • In what aspects is my thinking different from the rest?

Make reversible decisions

Use to strategically remove indecision to make faster decisions. Remove the anxiety associated with the seeming finality of decisions.

• Irreversible - 1 way door: If you decide once you can't exit or the cost is very high. Decide slowly and take as much information into account as possible.
• Reversible - 2 way door: Can go back from the decision with less or no cost. Decide quickly without perfect process and execute.

Think how you can make seemingly irreversible decisions reversible, and what it would take. Don't assume all decisions are irreversible, you'll lose time.

Examples:

• When Bezos was deciding to leave his job at DE Shaw to start Amazon, he thought that he could come back to the job if his business doesn't work out. So it was a reversible decision.
• Buy a car with a money-back guarantee

Seek "satisfaction"

Use to achieve your priorities and ignore what doesn't matter. Increase decision-making speed by focusing on solutions that are satisfying and sufficient.

• Questions to consider:
  • Is the solution good enough to make it satisfying?
  • Ignore maximization: "just in case I would need it"

Example: Shopping for a New Car

• Maximizer: spending hours researching every car option, comparing brands, models, and tiny details to find the perfect car at the best price. Even after deciding, they may still worry about missing a better option.
• Satisficer: looking for a car that meets basic needs: four wheels, a sturdy frame, a comfortable seat, and reliable brakes. Once they find a car that is "good enough," they stop searching and are satisfied with their choice.

Stay within 40-70%

Use to balance information with action. To make a decision, you should have no less than 40% and no more than 70% of the information.

• Be faster than more informed people and more informed than fast people.
• Focus on general broad information and its effects on you, while ignoring details.
• Fill the gap with intuition. Gather extra info afterwards.

Minimize regret

Consult the future YOU on decisions. Gain clarity on what matters and think about what the future you actually wants.

• Steps:
  • Project yourself at age 80.
  • Look back and decide how you want to feel (as few regrets as possible).
  • Consider how you'll feel in "X" number of years about this action.

Ignore "black swans"

A "Black Swan" is a metaphor used to describe highly unpredictable events that can cause massive changes in perception and understanding. These events are rare and typically come as a surprise.

• Conclusion: It's important not to let these rare, unpredictable events dictate your long-term strategies or decision-making processes.

Look for equilibrium points

Understand that increasing resources (time, money, or effort) doesn't always correspond to proportional increases in outcomes.

• Find the equilibrium point where your input/effort provide an acceptable amount of satisfaction.

After a certain point, additional effort can even make the outcome worse. This is also called the law of diminishing returns.

Example:

Studying for an exam yields significant gains in knowledge at first, but after many hours, additional study might only yield marginal improvements. Excessive study hours can be counterproductive, resulting in fatigue, reduced retention, and potential burnout.

Wait for the regression to the mean

The mean represents the normal, usual, or average situation, often referred to as the routine. In various scenarios, extreme events tend to revert to this average over time.

• Approach: When an extreme event occurs, it’s important to wait for the situation to stabilize and return to its average state. Understanding the connection (or lack thereof) between events helps in making informed decisions.

Example:

Imagine you’re a salesperson who usually makes 20 sales a week. One week, you make 40 sales due to an unexpected market boom. Instead of expecting this high number to continue, anticipate that your sales will likely return to the usual 20 sales per week in the following weeks. This is regression to the mean. By understanding this, you avoid unrealistic expectations and better manage your workload and stress.

What would Bayes do?

Calculate the likelihood of future events based on actual data and evidence. Focus on concrete information ("signals") instead of relying on assumptions.

• Bayes' theorem allows you to update the probability of a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. This means you continuously refine your predictions based on new data.

Example:

Suppose you’re a project manager assessing the risk of a project delay. Initially, you estimate a 30% chance of delay based on past projects. However, as the project progresses, you notice that a key supplier is frequently late with deliveries, which historically leads to delays in 70% of similar projects. Using Bayes' theorem, you update the probability of the delay occurring, integrating the new information about the supplier's performance.

Do it like Darwin

Charles Darwin, the renowned naturalist, is famous for his theory of evolution by natural selection, which revolutionized our understanding of biological diversity and the origin of species. Darwin's meticulous and rigorous scientific method was grounded in seeking real, honest truth, often challenging established beliefs and being open to contradicting ideas.

To emulate Darwin's approach in your quest for truth, consider these questions:

• What do you know? Clearly define your current knowledge and understanding of the situation.
• Are you sure? Evaluate the certainty of your knowledge. Distinguish between facts, assumptions, and beliefs.
• Why are you sure? Examine the evidence supporting your certainty. Ensure that your conclusions are based on solid data and logical reasoning.
• How can it be proved? Seek empirical evidence and logical proofs to substantiate your claims. Be prepared to test and verify your assertions.
• What potential errors could you have made? Reflect on possible biases, mistakes, and alternative explanations. Acknowledge the limits of your knowledge and be willing to revise your views based on new evidence.

Think with System 2

Embrace System 2 thinking to enhance analytical reasoning and reduce emotional bias.

• System 1: Rapid, instinctive thinking driven by emotions.
• System 2: Deliberate, slow thinking centered on analysis and high-stakes accuracy.

Both systems are essential, but System 2 is key for clear, rational decision-making.

Ideal Solution Thinking

Imagine solving a problem without any constraints to identify the ideal solution. Use this ideal solution as a benchmark and then work within your constraints to approach it as closely as possible.

Example: If budget were no issue, how would you redesign your home? Use this vision to guide realistic renovations within your budget.

Peer review your perspectives

Utilize these methods to grasp the consensus view and identify why your perspective may differ.

• Peer Review: Have your work evaluated by experts in your field to gain insights and validation.
• Triangulation: Gather information from multiple sources to synthesize and understand the broader perspective or average.

Find your own flaws

Scrutinize yourself before others do. Treat your perspective as a hypothesis that must be tested and verified.

• Self-Reflect: Consider your actions and decisions critically. Ask, "What could I have done better? What was my role in this?"
• Seek Feedback: Regularly ask for input from peers and mentors to uncover blind spots.
• Challenge Assumptions: Continuously question your beliefs. Ask, "Why do I believe this? Is there evidence to support it?"

Separate correlation from causation

Understand what truly needs to be addressed to solve a problem. Correlation doesn't imply causation. Use trends and data to make reasonable judgments.

Example:

Imagine you observe that sales of ice cream increase and, at the same time, the melting of ice caps also increases. At first glance, it might seem that eating more ice cream causes the ice caps to melt. However, correlation doesn't imply causation.

To understand what truly needs to be addressed, further investigation is required. It might turn out that both higher ice cream sales and the melting of ice caps are caused by higher temperatures during the summer months. It's the heat, not the ice cream, that is contributing to the melting ice caps.

Storytell in reverse

Use to determine causation more effectively. Fishbone diagram is a structured technique that helps identify multiple potential causes for a problem/effect. You work in reverse from effect to cause. The end product is a visual display of all the factors (micro & macro) that play a role in leading to the effect or problem.

SCAMPER it

Methodologically and creatively solve problems with force fitting (=You can come up with something new by simply modifying the old things already present around you). You break down a process in its parts and then ask what you can do with each of the parts:

• Substitute: Replace certain parts in the product, process, service with another to solve the problem. Results in more cost-effective solution at same quality?
• Combine: Two products, ideas, steps of procedure can be combined to produce a single output or process that's better in some way. two ideas => One new one, two companies => join strengths.
• Adapt: Adjust something to enhance it, how can we regulate process or product to make more cost-effective, save more time or sell better?
• Minimize/Magnify: Increase or decrease an element to trigger new ideas e.g. emphasis on 1 feature, exaggerate problem, do more frequently,...
• Put to another use: How can existing product or process be used for a purpose other what its currently being used for.
• Eliminate: Identify unnecessary elements of a project/process to eliminate same output with less resources. E.g. Carry out activity with half of the resources?
• Reverse: Switching up the order of the process steps in order to find solutions. How would reversing change outcome? e.g. exercising at start of the day instead of end of the day.

Get back to first principles

Used to break preconceptions and find your own solution. Stripping everything about a problem until you have the basic components. Break assumptions you have about a problem down until you remain with the basic factors to find a new solution. To find first principles:

1. Identify & define current assumptions
2. Break down problem in first principles: something edible resembling product
3. Create new solutions from scratch.

A famous example of this principle is the development of the reusable rocket by Elon Musk. In order to build a rocket he started from the basic materials + the principle of flying.

Avoid direct goals

Use this strategy to find clarity in reaching your overarching destination. Instead of focusing on what to achieve, work to avoid negative outcomes. Always invert your thinking: identify what wasn't possible to find a solution.

Here’s how to approach it:

1. List What to Avoid: Identify potential pitfalls rather than focusing on solutions. Consider what you want to avoid instead of asking how to solve the problem.
2. Consider the Causes: Ask yourself how you could cause the problem, then study failures instead of successes.
3. Uncover Hidden Beliefs: Define failure and identify the causes of unhappiness.

By doing so, you can create methods to avoid these negative outcomes at all costs.

Avoid thinking like an expert

Use this strategy to see both the big picture and the finer details. While expertise in a field can be valuable, it can also limit your perspective, making it harder to recognize simple solutions outside your area of expertise.

Here’s how to approach it:

1. Step Back Occasionally: Avoid thinking like an expert sometimes to regain a broader perspective. Experts often skim over basics and assume the fundamentals are correct, which can lead to oversight of small errors.
2. Consider Simple Solutions: Remember that small mistakes are often noticed by those with less experience. This fresh perspective can help you identify issues that experts might miss.
3. Balance Detail and Overview: Ensure you can see both the intricate details and the overall picture. For instance, experts might know all the ingredients of a recipe but miss simple errors in the process.

By occasionally stepping back from your expert mindset, you can maintain a balanced view and improve problem-solving.

Avoid your non-genius zones

Focus on your zone of genius. Understand your limitations and confidently leverage your strengths. Prioritize tasks that align with your expertise, and delegate or seek help for areas outside your core strengths.

Avoid To-Do lists

Direct your attention to what truly matters. Instead of a to-do list, create a "don't do" list to eliminate unnecessary tasks and free your mind for more important activities.

Avoid the path of least resistance

Exercise more self-discipline and willpower. Seek challenges instead of what's too easy or too good to be true.